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La Virgen del Camino vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
9/9/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

La Virgen del Camino23%
×Draw28%
Salamanca UDS50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
0.84
Salamanca UDS
1.38

Salamanca UDS creates 64% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
50%
La Virgen del Camino or Salamanca UDS
72%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
77%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
7%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
57%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
21%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
5%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
75%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
40%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
32%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.84

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
23%
level
28%
Salamanca UDS scores more
50%

Salamanca UDS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Virgen del Camino 0 – 0 Salamanca UDS

La Virgen del Camino and Salamanca UDS drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.