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La Virgen del Camino vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
La Granja
La Granja
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

La Virgen del Camino57%
×Draw24%
La Granja18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.65
La Granja
0.81

La Virgen del Camino creates 104% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
La Granja
2.19

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
82%
La Virgen del Camino or La Granja
76%
Draw or La Granja
43%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
31%
La Granja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
81%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
49%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
23%
La Granja 1+ goals
56%
La Granja 2+ goals
19%
La Granja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
76%
La Granja (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.65

La Granja attack 0.68 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
57%
level
24%
La Granja scores more
18%

La Virgen del Camino at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs La Granja

La Granja beat La Virgen del Camino 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.