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La Virgen del Camino vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
CANC
00:00
Bupolsa
Bupolsa
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 36Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

La Virgen del Camino45%
×Draw29%
Bupolsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.23
Bupolsa
0.87

La Virgen del Camino creates 41% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Bupolsa
0.81

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Bupolsa
1.35

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Bupolsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
74%
La Virgen del Camino or Bupolsa
71%
Draw or Bupolsa
55%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
20%
Bupolsa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
71%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
35%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
13%
Bupolsa 1+ goals
58%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
22%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
63%
Bupolsa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
45%
level
29%
Bupolsa scores more
26%

La Virgen del Camino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Virgen del Camino vs Bupolsa — Match Preview

La Virgen del Camino face Bupolsa on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

La Virgen del Camino host Bupolsa at Campo Los Dominicos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.