Petro de Luanda 2–1 Recreativo da Caála

Petro de Luanda

FT

2 – 1

Recreativo da Caála

9/15/2013

Girabola · Round 23Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Petro de Luanda65%

×Draw23%

Recreativo da Caála12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petro de LuandaExpected goals in this matchRecreativo da Caála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.59

Petro de Luanda

1.75

Recreativo da Caála

0.59

Petro de Luanda creates 197% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

1.96

creates per match

0.73

0.46

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Petro de Luanda

1.96

Recreativo da Caála

0.73

allows per match

Petro de Luanda

0.46

Recreativo da Caála

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Recreativo da Caála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw

88%

Petro de Luanda or Recreativo da Caála

77%

Draw or Recreativo da Caála

35%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

38%

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

83%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

52%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

25%

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals

45%

Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals

12%

Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

84%

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.46 · 26 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 1.96 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.73 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more

65%

level

23%

Recreativo da Caála scores more

12%

Petro de Luanda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff