La Unión Atlético 3–2 UD Caravaca: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

UD Caravaca

Álex Jiménez 74'

Chema 40'

Omar Saura 29' (pen)

Alberto Pérez 83' (pen)

Tangu Gastão 12'

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético54%

×Draw25%

UD Caravaca21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchUD Caravaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.89

La Unión Atlético

1.58

UD Caravaca

0.89

La Unión Atlético creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 83 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

0.62

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

UD Caravaca

1.16

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

UD Caravaca

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

UD Caravaca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

79%

La Unión Atlético or UD Caravaca

75%

Draw or UD Caravaca

46%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

28%

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

79%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

47%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

21%

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

59%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

22%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

72%

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

54%

level

25%

UD Caravaca scores more

21%

La Unión Atlético at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Tangu Gastão

29'

Omar SauraPenalty

36'

Chema← Jorge Martínez

40'

Chema

46'

Alberto Pérez← Hamza Agnaou

46'

Fran Díez← Rubén Montoya

66'

Francisco Matallana← Sergio Jiménez

66'

Adrián Aguirre← Iván Zaragoza

66'

Álex Jiménez← Nico González

69'

Jorge Varela← Alberto Robles

74'

Álex Jiménez

81'

Belencoso← Omar Saura

83'

Alberto PérezPenalty

90+1'

Antonio Torrecilla← Antonio Escribano

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Saura

Collados

▼

Martínez

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

36'▲Chema←▼Jorge Martínez

66'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Sergio Jiménez

66'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Iván Zaragoza

66'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Nico González

81'▲Belencoso←▼Omar Saura

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ChemaMatallanaAguirreJiménezBelencoso

Manager: Luis Franco

46'▲Alberto Pérez←▼Hamza Agnaou

46'▲Fran Díez←▼Rubén Montoya

69'▲Jorge Varela←▼Alberto Robles

90+1'▲Antonio Torrecilla←▼Antonio Escribano

UD Caravaca substitutes

PérezDíezVarelaTorrecilla

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs UD Caravaca

La Unión Atlético beat UD Caravaca 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 24, 2021.

Goals: Tangu Gastão (12'), Omar Saura (29' pen), Chema (40'), Álex Jiménez (74'), Alberto Pérez (83' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs UD Caravaca