La Unión Atlético 1–1 Racing Murcia: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Murcia

Belencoso 90+2'

Óscar Díaz 85'

12/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético47%

×Draw28%

Racing Murcia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchRacing Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.88

La Unión Atlético

1.33

Racing Murcia

0.88

La Unión Atlético creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 62 away

1.60

creates per match

1.13

0.62

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Racing Murcia

1.13

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Racing Murcia

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Racing Murcia →

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

75%

La Unión Atlético or Racing Murcia

72%

Draw or Racing Murcia

53%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

22%

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

74%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

38%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

15%

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

59%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

22%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

66%

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

47%

level

28%

Racing Murcia scores more

25%

La Unión Atlético at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Óscar Díaz← R. Drenthe

55'

Juan Arcas← Nico González

55'

Omar Saura← David Valdeolivas

71'

Hugo Guil← Victor Martinez

71'

Víctor← Federico Zanetti

71'

Samuel López← Gonzalo Páez

85'

Álex Jiménez← Chema

85'

Óscar Díaz

90'

A. Khalok← Andrés Campoy

90+2'

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

55'▲Juan Arcas←▼Nico González

55'▲Omar Saura←▼David Valdeolivas

71'▲Hugo Guil←▼Victor Martinez

85'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Chema

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ArcasSauraGuilJiménez

Manager: J. Acciari

37'▲Óscar Díaz←▼R. Drenthe

71'▲Víctor←▼Federico Zanetti

71'▲Samuel López←▼Gonzalo Páez

90'▲A. Khalok←▼Andrés Campoy

Racing Murcia substitutes

DíazVíctorLópezKhalok

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 1–1 Racing Murcia

La Unión Atlético and Racing Murcia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 19, 2021.

Goals: Óscar Díaz (85'), Belencoso (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 1–1 Racing Murcia