La Unión Atlético 0–0 Mar Menor: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mar Menor

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

La Unión Atlético37%

×Draw31%

Mar Menor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchMar Menor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.95

La Unión Atlético

1.05

Mar Menor

0.95

La Unión Atlético creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

1.60

creates per match

1.27

0.62

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Mar Menor

1.27

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Mar Menor

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Mar Menor →

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

68%

La Unión Atlético or Mar Menor

69%

Draw or Mar Menor

63%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

15%

Mar Menor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

65%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

28%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals

61%

Mar Menor 2+ goals

25%

Mar Menor 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

54%

Mar Menor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

37%

level

31%

Mar Menor scores more

32%

La Unión Atlético at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Antonio Martínez← Hamza

41'

Jero← Abel López

66'

M. Sidibé← Sergio Jiménez

66'

Harri← Renato

71'

Miguel Guirao← Kilian Morante

83'

Miguel← Perico

90'

Chema← Ketchup

Mar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

66'▲M. Sidibé←▼Sergio Jiménez

66'▲Harri←▼Renato

83'▲Miguel←▼Perico

90'▲Chema←▼Ketchup

La Unión Atlético substitutes

SidibéHarriMiguelChema

Manager: Javi Motos

27'▲Antonio Martínez←▼Hamza

41'▲Jero←▼Abel López

71'▲Miguel Guirao←▼Kilian Morante

Mar Menor substitutes

MartínezJeroGuirao