La Unión Atlético 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

La Unión Atlético

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Ketchup 75'

Miguel 47'

Peque 59' (pen)

11/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético56%

×Draw26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.73

La Unión Atlético

1.52

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.73

La Unión Atlético creates 108% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 78 away

1.60

creates per match

0.85

0.62

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

82%

La Unión Atlético or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

74%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

44%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

78%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

45%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

20%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

52%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

17%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

76%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

56%

level

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

18%

La Unión Atlético at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

Miguel

55'

J. Quinto← Alvaro Esquinas

56'

M. Camara← Nono

59'

PequePenalty

65'

Mascuñán← Chema

65'

Sergio Jiménez← Miguel

75'

Ketchup

79'

Cristian Gil← Ángel Álvarez

79'

Juan Piqueras← Óscar García

79'

Alejandro González← Alejandro Pérez

88'

Iván Santisteban← Perico

88'

Harri← Ketchup

CAP

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Miguel

▼

Nono

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

56'▲M. Camara←▼Nono

65'▲Mascuñán←▼Chema

65'▲Sergio Jiménez←▼Miguel

88'▲Iván Santisteban←▼Perico

88'▲Harri←▼Ketchup

La Unión Atlético substitutes

CamaraMascuñánJiménezSantistebanHarri

Manager: Juan López

55'▲J. Quinto←▼Alvaro Esquinas

79'▲Cristian Gil←▼Ángel Álvarez

79'▲Juan Piqueras←▼Óscar García

79'▲Alejandro González←▼Alejandro Pérez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

QuintoGilPiquerasGonzález

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

La Unión Atlético beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 15, 2020.

Goals: Miguel (47'), Peque (59' pen), Ketchup (75').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: La Unión Atlético 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia