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CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Mario 54'
Matías 30'
David Valverde 12'
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia35%
×Draw30%
La Unión Atlético35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.07
La Unión Atlético
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.03
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.04
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw
65%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia or La Unión Atlético
70%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
65%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
14%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
66%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
29%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
9%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
66%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
29%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
50%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
35%
level
30%
La Unión Atlético scores more
35%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
David Valverde
30'
Matías
46'
Juan Arcas← Belencoso
46'
Álex Jiménez← David Valdeolivas
46'
H. Eagle← Adrián Aguirre
46'
Jorge Martínez← Chema
54'
Mario
66'
Óscar García← Javi Muñoz
66'
Emilio Pérez← Pablo Guillen
77'
Jawad Benhari← Nico González
78'
Diego Cárceles← Samuel Martínez
82'
Miguel← David Valverde
82'
Alejandro Pérez← Mario
CAP
La
Hugo Guil
Guil
Juanma Iglesias
Iglesias
Julio Algar
Algar
Adrián Aguirre
▼
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
▼
Valdeoliv
Schuster
Schuster
Francisco Matallana
Matallana
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
Miguel Martínez
Martínez
Mario
⚽
▼
Mario
David
David
Francisco Carrillo
Carrillo
Matías
⚽
Matías
Franco
Franco
Pablo Guillen
▼
Guillen
Samuel Martínez
▼
Martínez
Javi Muñoz
▼
Muñoz
Jaime
Jaime
David Valverde
⚽
▼
Valverde
Ismael Ibañez
Manager: Ismael Ibañez
66'▲Óscar García←▼Javi Muñoz
66'▲Emilio Pérez←▼Pablo Guillen
78'▲Diego Cárceles←▼Samuel Martínez
82'▲Miguel←▼David Valverde
82'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Mario

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

GarcíaPérezCárcelesMiguelPérez
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
46'▲Juan Arcas←▼Belencoso
46'▲Álex Jiménez←▼David Valdeolivas
46'▲H. Eagle←▼Adrián Aguirre
46'▲Jorge Martínez←▼Chema
77'▲Jawad Benhari←▼Nico González

La Unión Atlético substitutes

ArcasJiménezEagleMartínezBenhari

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs La Unión Atlético

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat La Unión Atlético 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 9, 2021.

Goals: David Valverde (12'), Matías (30'), Mario (54').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.