La Unión Atlético 1–0 Bullense: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bullense

Fran Cortés 29' (pen)

1/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético65%

×Draw22%

Bullense13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchBullense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.70

La Unión Atlético

1.86

Bullense

0.70

La Unión Atlético creates 166% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

1.60

creates per match

0.78

0.62

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Bullense

0.78

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Bullense

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Bullense →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

87%

La Unión Atlético or Bullense

78%

Draw or Bullense

35%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

39%

Bullense wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

84%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

55%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

28%

Bullense 1+ goals

50%

Bullense 2+ goals

16%

Bullense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

83%

Bullense (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Bullense attack 0.78 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

65%

level

22%

Bullense scores more

13%

La Unión Atlético at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Fran CortésPenalty

32'

Higón← Dani Díez

57'

Eleuterio Rodriguez← Jesús Vives

57'

B. Otu← Flavio Audisio

60'

Álex Briega← Fran Cortés

60'

Belencoso← D. Denot

74'

Alexis López← Enrique Romero

83'

Seyram Awute← Dani Casado

84'

Adrián Aguirre← Higón

Bullense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

32'▲Higón←▼Dani Díez

60'▲Álex Briega←▼Fran Cortés

60'▲Belencoso←▼D. Denot

84'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Higón

La Unión Atlético substitutes

HigónBriegaBelencosoAguirre

Manager: Juan Antonio Calvo

57'▲Eleuterio Rodriguez←▼Jesús Vives

57'▲B. Otu←▼Flavio Audisio

74'▲Alexis López←▼Enrique Romero

83'▲Seyram Awute←▼Dani Casado

Bullense substitutes

RodriguezOtuLópezAwute