La Unión Atlético 0–0 Águilas: Result & Stats

La Unión Atlético

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas

10/30/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

La Unión Atlético42%

×Draw30%

Águilas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.86

La Unión Atlético

1.15

Águilas

0.86

La Unión Atlético creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

1.60

creates per match

1.10

0.62

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Águilas →

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

73%

La Unión Atlético or Águilas

70%

Draw or Águilas

58%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

18%

Águilas wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

68%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

32%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

11%

Águilas 1+ goals

58%

Águilas 2+ goals

21%

Águilas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

61%

Águilas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.15

Águilas attack 1.10 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

42%

level

30%

Águilas scores more

27%

La Unión Atlético at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Peque← Adrián Miñarro

53'

Dani Díez← Fran Cortés

62'

Aitor Pons← Casi

65'

D. Denot← Vitolo

65'

Tato← Sergio Jiménez

71'

Borjita García← Cristo Martín

77'

Belencoso← Higón

85'

Águilas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

53'▲Dani Díez←▼Fran Cortés

65'▲D. Denot←▼Vitolo

65'▲Tato←▼Sergio Jiménez

77'▲Belencoso←▼Higón

La Unión Atlético substitutes

DíezDenotTatoBelencoso

Manager: Sebas López

46'▲Peque←▼Adrián Miñarro

62'▲Aitor Pons←▼Casi

71'▲Borjita García←▼Cristo Martín

85'▲Ayala←▼Juan Góngora

Águilas substitutes

PequePonsGarcíaAyala