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Águilas vs La Unión Atlético — League #878 2026

Águilas
Águilas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
J. Mas 53'
Pipo 38'
12/7/2025League #878League #878 · Group 4 - 14Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Águilas61%
×Draw30%
La Unión Atlético9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas
1.27
La Unión Atlético
0.32

Águilas creates 297% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Águilas
1.25
La Unión Atlético
0.14

allows per match

Águilas
0.50
La Unión Atlético
1.29

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–026%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (26%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Águilas or draw
91%
Águilas or La Unión Atlético
70%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
39%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+
30%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals
72%
Águilas 2+ goals
36%
Águilas 3+ goals
14%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
27%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
4%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)
87%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 0.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 1.25 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

La Unión Atlético attack 0.14 + Águilas defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Águilas scores more
61%
level
30%
La Unión Atlético scores more
9%

Águilas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Pipo
53'
J. Mas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas vs La Unión Atlético

Águilas beat La Unión Atlético 2-0 in League #878 on December 7, 2025.

Goals: Pipo (38'), J. Mas (53').

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.