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La Solana vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Solana
La Solana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tarancón
Tarancón
2/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 20La Moheda Anexo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

La Solana33%
×Draw29%
Tarancón38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Solana
1.04
Tarancón
1.14

Tarancón creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 110 away

creates per match

La Solana
0.91
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

La Solana
0.99
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

La Solana+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Solana ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

La Solana or draw
62%
La Solana or Tarancón
71%
Draw or Tarancón
67%

Winning margin

La Solana wins by 2+
13%
Tarancón wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

La Solana 1+ goals
65%
La Solana 2+ goals
28%
La Solana 3+ goals
9%
Tarancón 1+ goals
68%
Tarancón 2+ goals
32%
Tarancón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

La Solana (draw refunded)
46%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Solana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.99 · 77 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Solana attack 0.91 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Tarancón attack 1.28 + La Solana defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Solana scores more
33%
level
29%
Tarancón scores more
38%

Tarancón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: La Solana 1–1 Tarancón

La Solana and Tarancón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at La Moheda Anexo in La Solana.