Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

La Solana vs Talavera II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Solana
La Solana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Talavera II
Talavera II
9/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2Estadio La Moheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Solana57%
×Draw24%
Talavera II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Solana
1.69
Talavera II
0.86

La Solana creates 97% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

La Solana
0.91
Talavera II
0.73

allows per match

La Solana
0.99
Talavera II
2.47

finishing

La Solana+0.00on par
Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Solana ↓

Talavera II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

La Solana or draw
81%
La Solana or Talavera II
76%
Draw or Talavera II
43%

Winning margin

La Solana wins by 2+
32%
Talavera II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

La Solana 1+ goals
82%
La Solana 2+ goals
50%
La Solana 3+ goals
24%
Talavera II 1+ goals
58%
Talavera II 2+ goals
21%
Talavera II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Solana (draw refunded)
75%
Talavera II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Solana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.99 · 77 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Solana attack 0.91 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Talavera II attack 0.73 + La Solana defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

La Solana scores more
57%
level
24%
Talavera II scores more
19%

La Solana at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "La Solana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Solana vs Talavera II

La Solana beat Talavera II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Moheda in La Solana.