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La Solana vs La Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Solana
La Solana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Roda
La Roda
3/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio La Moheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

La Solana53%
×Draw28%
La Roda19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Solana
1.38
La Roda
0.70

La Solana creates 97% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

La Solana
0.91
La Roda
0.41

allows per match

La Solana
0.99
La Roda
1.85

finishing

La Solana+0.00on par
La Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Solana ↓

La Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

La Solana or draw
81%
La Solana or La Roda
72%
Draw or La Roda
47%

Winning margin

La Solana wins by 2+
26%
La Roda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

La Solana 1+ goals
75%
La Solana 2+ goals
40%
La Solana 3+ goals
16%
La Roda 1+ goals
50%
La Roda 2+ goals
16%
La Roda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

La Solana (draw refunded)
74%
La Roda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Solana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.99 · 77 matches

La Roda away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Solana attack 0.91 + La Roda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

La Roda attack 0.41 + La Solana defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

La Solana scores more
53%
level
28%
La Roda scores more
19%

La Solana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "La Solana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: La Solana 1–1 La Roda

La Solana and La Roda drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Moheda in La Solana.