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La Solana vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Solana
La Solana
CANC
00:00
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Estadio La Moheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Solana35%
×Draw30%
Atlético Ibañés35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Solana
1.04
Atlético Ibañés
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

La Solana
0.91
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

La Solana
0.99
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

La Solana+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Solana ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

La Solana or draw
65%
La Solana or Atlético Ibañés
70%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
65%

Winning margin

La Solana wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

La Solana 1+ goals
65%
La Solana 2+ goals
28%
La Solana 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

La Solana (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Solana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.99 · 77 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Solana attack 0.91 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + La Solana defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

La Solana scores more
35%
level
30%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
35%

La Solana at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "La Solana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: La Solana host Atlético Ibañés

April 19, 2020: La Solana take on Atlético Ibañés in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

La Solana host Atlético Ibañés at Estadio La Moheda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.