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La Solana vs Almansa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Solana
La Solana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Almansa
Almansa
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 27Estadio La Moheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

La Solana44%
×Draw27%
Almansa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Solana
1.35
Almansa
1.04

La Solana creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 46 away

creates per match

La Solana
0.91
Almansa
1.09

allows per match

La Solana
0.99
Almansa
1.80

finishing

La Solana+0.00on par
Almansa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Solana ↓

Almansa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

La Solana or draw
71%
La Solana or Almansa
73%
Draw or Almansa
56%

Winning margin

La Solana wins by 2+
20%
Almansa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

La Solana 1+ goals
74%
La Solana 2+ goals
39%
La Solana 3+ goals
15%
Almansa 1+ goals
65%
Almansa 2+ goals
28%
Almansa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

La Solana (draw refunded)
60%
Almansa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Solana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.99 · 77 matches

Almansa away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Solana attack 0.91 + Almansa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.35

Almansa attack 1.09 + La Solana defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

La Solana scores more
44%
level
27%
Almansa scores more
29%

La Solana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "La Solana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: La Solana 3–1 Almansa

La Solana beat Almansa 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Moheda in La Solana.