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La Roda vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Roda
La Roda
CANC
17:00
San Clemente
San Clemente
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

La Roda44%
×Draw27%
San Clemente29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Roda
1.36
San Clemente
1.05

La Roda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 50 away

creates per match

La Roda
0.86
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

La Roda
1.41
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

La Roda+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Roda ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Roda or draw
71%
La Roda or San Clemente
73%
Draw or San Clemente
56%

Winning margin

La Roda wins by 2+
21%
San Clemente wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

La Roda 1+ goals
74%
La Roda 2+ goals
39%
La Roda 3+ goals
16%
San Clemente 1+ goals
65%
San Clemente 2+ goals
28%
San Clemente 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

La Roda (draw refunded)
60%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Roda at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Roda attack 0.86 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

San Clemente attack 0.70 + La Roda defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

La Roda scores more
44%
level
27%
San Clemente scores more
29%

La Roda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "La Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: La Roda host San Clemente

February 13, 2022: La Roda take on San Clemente in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

La Roda host San Clemente at Estadio Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.