La Roda 0–0 Manchego: Result & Stats

La Roda

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manchego

2/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

La Roda28%

×Draw29%

Manchego43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La RodaExpected goals in this matchManchego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.23

La Roda

0.94

Manchego

1.23

Manchego creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 94 away

0.86

creates per match

1.05

1.41

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

La Roda

0.86

Manchego

1.05

allows per match

La Roda

1.41

Manchego

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Roda+0.00on par

Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Roda ↓

Manchego →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

La Roda or draw

57%

La Roda or Manchego

71%

Draw or Manchego

72%

Winning margin

La Roda wins by 2+

10%

Manchego wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

La Roda 1+ goals

61%

La Roda 2+ goals

24%

La Roda 3+ goals

Manchego 1+ goals

71%

Manchego 2+ goals

35%

Manchego 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

La Roda (draw refunded)

40%

Manchego (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Roda at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Roda attack 0.86 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Manchego attack 1.05 + La Roda defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Roda scores more

28%

level

29%

Manchego scores more

43%

Manchego at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff