La Roda 1–0 Illescas: Result & Stats

La Roda

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Illescas

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 12Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

La Roda35%

×Draw28%

Illescas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La RodaExpected goals in this matchIllescas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.22

La Roda

1.17

Illescas

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 78 away

0.86

creates per match

1.03

1.41

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

La Roda

0.86

Illescas

1.03

allows per match

La Roda

1.41

Illescas

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Roda+0.00on par

Illescas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Roda ↓

Illescas →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Roda or draw

63%

La Roda or Illescas

72%

Draw or Illescas

65%

Winning margin

La Roda wins by 2+

14%

Illescas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

La Roda 1+ goals

69%

La Roda 2+ goals

33%

La Roda 3+ goals

11%

Illescas 1+ goals

70%

Illescas 2+ goals

34%

Illescas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

La Roda (draw refunded)

48%

Illescas (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Roda at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Illescas away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.47 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Roda attack 0.86 + Illescas defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Illescas attack 1.03 + La Roda defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Roda scores more

35%

level

28%

Illescas scores more

37%

Illescas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Illescas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff