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La Roda vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

La Roda
La Roda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
2/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Roda30%
×Draw29%
Atlético Ibañés41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Roda
1.01
Atlético Ibañés
1.24

Atlético Ibañés creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

La Roda
0.86
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

La Roda
1.41
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

La Roda+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Roda ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

La Roda or draw
59%
La Roda or Atlético Ibañés
71%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
70%

Winning margin

La Roda wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

La Roda 1+ goals
64%
La Roda 2+ goals
27%
La Roda 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

La Roda (draw refunded)
42%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Roda at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Roda attack 0.86 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + La Roda defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

La Roda scores more
30%
level
29%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
41%

Atlético Ibañés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Ibañés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Roda vs Atlético Ibañés

La Roda and Atlético Ibañés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Roda.