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La Nucía vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

La Nucía
La Nucía
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

La Nucía43%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Nucía
1.38
Villarreal III
1.09

La Nucía creates 27% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 112 away

creates per match

La Nucía
1.53
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

La Nucía
0.81
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw
70%
La Nucía or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
57%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+
21%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals
75%
La Nucía 2+ goals
40%
La Nucía 3+ goals
16%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
66%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
30%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)
59%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Nucía scores more
43%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
30%

La Nucía at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: La Nucía 0–0 Villarreal III

La Nucía and Villarreal III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano in La Nucia.