La Nucía 4–0 Rayo Ibense: Result & Stats

La Nucía

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rayo Ibense

3/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 25Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

La Nucía59%

×Draw25%

Rayo Ibense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La NucíaExpected goals in this matchRayo Ibense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.72

La Nucía

1.63

Rayo Ibense

0.72

La Nucía creates 126% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 49 away

1.53

creates per match

0.63

0.81

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

La Nucía

1.53

Rayo Ibense

0.63

allows per match

La Nucía

0.81

Rayo Ibense

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Rayo Ibense →

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw

84%

La Nucía or Rayo Ibense

75%

Draw or Rayo Ibense

41%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+

32%

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals

80%

La Nucía 2+ goals

48%

La Nucía 3+ goals

22%

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

51%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

16%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)

78%

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

La Nucía scores more

59%

level

25%

Rayo Ibense scores more

16%

La Nucía at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff