La Nucía vs Calahorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
La Nucía41%
Calahorra27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
La Nucía creates 31% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 46 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
La Nucía ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
La Nucía at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches
Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
La Nucía attack 1.05 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06
Calahorra attack 0.78 + La Nucía defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
La Nucía at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Atlético Baleares
Ibiza
Atlético Madrid II
Peña Deportiva
Coruxo
Rayo Majadahonda
Real Madrid II
Internacional de Madrid
Pontevedra
Langreo
Racing Ferrol
Real Oviedo II
Melilla
Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijón II
Las Palmas II
Las Rozas
Marino de Luanco
Getafe II
SS Reyes
UD Logroñés
Cultural Leonesa
Athletic Club II
Real Valladolid II
Real Sociedad II
Amorebieta
Osasuna II
Burgos
Guijuelo
Haro Deportivo
Deportivo Alavés IICalahorra
Salamanca UDS
Barakaldo
Leioa
Unionistas de Salamanca
Real Unión
Arenas Getxo
Izarra
Tudelano
Castellón
Barcelona B
Sabadell
Cornellà
Lleida Esportiu
Villarreal II
Olot
Espanyol II
FC AndorraLa Nucía
Ebro
Levante II
Llagostera
Gimnastic
Ejea
Valencia II
Prat
Hércules
Badalona
Orihuela
FC Cartagena
Marbella
Badajoz
Yeclano
Cordoba
San Fernando CD
Linense
Real Murcia
Sevilla Atletico
Ucam Murcia
Cádiz II
Villarrubia
Recreativo Huelva
Don Benito
Sanluqueño
Algeciras
CF Talavera
Granada II
Mérida AD
VillarrobledoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
La Nucía host Calahorra on Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 10:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019/2020 season.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2: La Nucía 2–1 Calahorra
La Nucía beat Calahorra 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 7, 2023.
The match was played at Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano in La Nucia.