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La Nucía vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

La Nucía
La Nucía
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alzira
Alzira
9/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 3Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

La Nucía47%
×Draw28%
Alzira26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Nucía
1.35
Alzira
0.92

La Nucía creates 47% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

creates per match

La Nucía
1.53
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

La Nucía
0.81
Alzira
1.18

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw
74%
La Nucía or Alzira
72%
Draw or Alzira
53%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+
22%
Alzira wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals
74%
La Nucía 2+ goals
39%
La Nucía 3+ goals
15%
Alzira 1+ goals
60%
Alzira 2+ goals
23%
Alzira 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)
65%
Alzira (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Alzira attack 1.02 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Nucía scores more
47%
level
28%
Alzira scores more
26%

La Nucía at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: La Nucía 1–0 Alzira

La Nucía beat Alzira 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Camilo Cano in La Nucía.