Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

La Granja vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Granja
La Granja
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja39%
×Draw27%
Salamanca II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Granja
1.27
Salamanca II
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

creates per match

La Granja
1.20
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

La Granja
1.33
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Granja or draw
66%
La Granja or Salamanca II
73%
Draw or Salamanca II
61%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+
17%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals
72%
La Granja 2+ goals
36%
La Granja 3+ goals
14%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
69%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
33%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)
53%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

La Granja scores more
39%
level
27%
Salamanca II scores more
34%

La Granja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "La Granja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Granja 2–3 Salamanca II

Salamanca II beat La Granja 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital in San Ildefonso.