La Granja 1–5 Becerril Campos: Result & Stats

La Granja

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Becerril Campos

2/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja42%

×Draw26%

Becerril Campos32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La GranjaExpected goals in this matchBecerril Campos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.18

La Granja

1.39

Becerril Campos

1.18

La Granja creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 97 away

1.20

creates per match

1.02

1.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

La Granja

1.20

Becerril Campos

1.02

allows per match

La Granja

1.33

Becerril Campos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Becerril Campos →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

La Granja or draw

68%

La Granja or Becerril Campos

74%

Draw or Becerril Campos

58%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+

20%

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals

75%

La Granja 2+ goals

40%

La Granja 3+ goals

16%

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

69%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

33%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)

57%

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Granja scores more

42%

level

26%

Becerril Campos scores more

32%

La Granja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "La Granja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff