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La Granja vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Granja
La Granja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Almazán
Almazán
9/7/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja39%
×Draw27%
Almazán33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Granja
1.27
Almazán
1.15

La Granja creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

creates per match

La Granja
1.20
Almazán
0.97

allows per match

La Granja
1.33
Almazán
1.34

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par
Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Almazán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Granja or draw
67%
La Granja or Almazán
73%
Draw or Almazán
61%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+
17%
Almazán wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals
72%
La Granja 2+ goals
36%
La Granja 3+ goals
14%
Almazán 1+ goals
68%
Almazán 2+ goals
32%
Almazán 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)
54%
Almazán (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almazán attack 0.97 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

La Granja scores more
39%
level
27%
Almazán scores more
33%

La Granja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "La Granja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Granja vs Almazán

La Granja and Almazán drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital in San Ildefonso.