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La Estrella vs Olivenza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

La Estrella
La Estrella
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olivenza
Olivenza
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 27Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Estrella38%
×Draw26%
Olivenza37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Estrella
1.38
Olivenza
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

La Estrella
1.20
Olivenza
1.00

allows per match

La Estrella
1.73
Olivenza
1.56

finishing

La Estrella+0.00on par
Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Estrella ↓

Olivenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

La Estrella or draw
63%
La Estrella or Olivenza
74%
Draw or Olivenza
62%

Winning margin

La Estrella wins by 2+
17%
Olivenza wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

La Estrella 1+ goals
75%
La Estrella 2+ goals
40%
La Estrella 3+ goals
16%
Olivenza 1+ goals
74%
Olivenza 2+ goals
39%
Olivenza 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

La Estrella (draw refunded)
51%
Olivenza (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Estrella at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Estrella attack 1.20 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Olivenza attack 1.00 + La Estrella defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

La Estrella scores more
38%
level
26%
Olivenza scores more
37%

La Estrella at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "La Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: La Estrella 1–2 Olivenza

Olivenza beat La Estrella 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco in Los Santos de Maimona.