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La Estrella vs Miajadas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

La Estrella
La Estrella
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Miajadas
Miajadas
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Estrella39%
×Draw27%
Miajadas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Estrella
1.33
Miajadas
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

La Estrella
1.20
Miajadas
0.77

allows per match

La Estrella
1.73
Miajadas
1.46

finishing

La Estrella+0.00on par
Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Estrella ↓

Miajadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

La Estrella or draw
65%
La Estrella or Miajadas
73%
Draw or Miajadas
61%

Winning margin

La Estrella wins by 2+
17%
Miajadas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

La Estrella 1+ goals
74%
La Estrella 2+ goals
38%
La Estrella 3+ goals
15%
Miajadas 1+ goals
71%
Miajadas 2+ goals
36%
Miajadas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

La Estrella (draw refunded)
53%
Miajadas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Estrella at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Estrella attack 1.20 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Miajadas attack 0.77 + La Estrella defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

La Estrella scores more
39%
level
27%
Miajadas scores more
35%

La Estrella at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "La Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: La Estrella 3–2 Miajadas

La Estrella beat Miajadas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco in Los Santos de Maimona.