Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

La Estrella vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

La Estrella
La Estrella
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
11/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Estrella46%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Estrella
1.65
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.29

La Estrella creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

La Estrella
1.20
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

La Estrella
1.73
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

La Estrella+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Estrella ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

La Estrella or draw
70%
La Estrella or Atlético Pueblonuevo
76%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
54%

Winning margin

La Estrella wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

La Estrella 1+ goals
81%
La Estrella 2+ goals
49%
La Estrella 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

La Estrella (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Estrella at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Estrella attack 1.20 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + La Estrella defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

La Estrella scores more
46%
level
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
30%

La Estrella at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "La Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: La Estrella 1–1 Atlético Pueblonuevo

La Estrella and Atlético Pueblonuevo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco in Los Santos de Maimona.