La Estrella 0–1 Arroyo: Result & Stats

La Estrella

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arroyo

9/25/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 3Estadio Municipal Cipriano Tinoco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Estrella36%

×Draw26%

Arroyo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La EstrellaExpected goals in this matchArroyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

La Estrella

1.29

Arroyo

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

1.20

creates per match

0.89

1.73

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

La Estrella

1.20

Arroyo

0.89

allows per match

La Estrella

1.73

Arroyo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Estrella+0.00on par

Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Estrella ↓

Arroyo →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

La Estrella or draw

63%

La Estrella or Arroyo

74%

Draw or Arroyo

64%

Winning margin

La Estrella wins by 2+

16%

Arroyo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

La Estrella 1+ goals

72%

La Estrella 2+ goals

37%

La Estrella 3+ goals

14%

Arroyo 1+ goals

73%

Arroyo 2+ goals

38%

Arroyo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

La Estrella (draw refunded)

49%

Arroyo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Estrella at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Estrella attack 1.20 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arroyo attack 0.89 + La Estrella defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Estrella scores more

36%

level

26%

Arroyo scores more

37%

Arroyo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff