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La Cuadra vs Tenisca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tenisca
Tenisca
12/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

La Cuadra51%
×Draw24%
Tenisca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.75
Tenisca
1.15

La Cuadra creates 52% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
Tenisca
1.13

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
Tenisca
1.95

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
Tenisca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Tenisca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
75%
La Cuadra or Tenisca
76%
Draw or Tenisca
49%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
28%
Tenisca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
83%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
52%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
25%
Tenisca 1+ goals
68%
Tenisca 2+ goals
32%
Tenisca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
67%
Tenisca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Tenisca away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Tenisca defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tenisca attack 1.13 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

La Cuadra scores more
51%
level
24%
Tenisca scores more
25%

La Cuadra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Cuadra vs Tenisca

La Cuadra beat Tenisca 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.