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La Cuadra vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

La Cuadra35%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.23
Las Palmas II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
61%
La Cuadra or Las Palmas II
73%
Draw or Las Palmas II
65%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
15%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
71%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
35%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
13%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
73%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
38%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
47%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

La Cuadra scores more
35%
level
27%
Las Palmas II scores more
39%

Las Palmas II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Cuadra 4 – 3 Las Palmas II

La Cuadra beat Las Palmas II 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.