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La Cuadra vs Herbania — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Herbania
Herbania
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

La Cuadra51%
×Draw26%
Herbania23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.52
Herbania
0.92

La Cuadra creates 65% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 67 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
Herbania
0.66

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
Herbania
1.49

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
Herbania+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Herbania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
77%
La Cuadra or Herbania
74%
Draw or Herbania
49%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
26%
Herbania wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
78%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
45%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
20%
Herbania 1+ goals
60%
Herbania 2+ goals
23%
Herbania 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
69%
Herbania (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Herbania away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Herbania defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Herbania attack 0.66 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

La Cuadra scores more
51%
level
26%
Herbania scores more
23%

La Cuadra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Cuadra vs Herbania

Herbania beat La Cuadra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.