La Cuadra 1–1 Gran Tarajal: Result & Stats

La Cuadra

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gran Tarajal

1/30/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

La Cuadra51%

×Draw25%

Gran Tarajal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La CuadraExpected goals in this matchGran Tarajal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.07

La Cuadra

1.65

Gran Tarajal

1.07

La Cuadra creates 54% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

1.54

creates per match

0.97

1.17

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

La Cuadra

1.54

Gran Tarajal

0.97

allows per match

La Cuadra

1.17

Gran Tarajal

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Gran Tarajal →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw

75%

La Cuadra or Gran Tarajal

75%

Draw or Gran Tarajal

49%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+

27%

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals

81%

La Cuadra 2+ goals

49%

La Cuadra 3+ goals

23%

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

66%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

29%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)

67%

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

La Cuadra scores more

51%

level

25%

Gran Tarajal scores more

25%

La Cuadra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff