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La Cuadra vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

La Cuadra63%
×Draw21%
Estrella16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.96
Estrella
0.86

La Cuadra creates 128% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 32 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
Estrella
2.38

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
84%
La Cuadra or Estrella
79%
Draw or Estrella
37%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
38%
Estrella wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
86%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
58%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
31%
Estrella 1+ goals
58%
Estrella 2+ goals
21%
Estrella 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
80%
Estrella (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.96

Estrella attack 0.56 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

La Cuadra scores more
63%
level
21%
Estrella scores more
16%

La Cuadra at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: La Cuadra 6–0 Estrella

La Cuadra beat Estrella 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.