La Cuadra 0–0 Arucas: Result & Stats

La Cuadra

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arucas

4/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

La Cuadra46%

×Draw26%

Arucas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La CuadraExpected goals in this matchArucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.11

La Cuadra

1.50

Arucas

1.11

La Cuadra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 96 away

1.54

creates per match

1.06

1.17

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

La Cuadra

1.54

Arucas

1.06

allows per match

La Cuadra

1.17

Arucas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par

Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Arucas →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw

72%

La Cuadra or Arucas

74%

Draw or Arucas

54%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+

23%

Arucas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals

78%

La Cuadra 2+ goals

44%

La Cuadra 3+ goals

19%

Arucas 1+ goals

67%

Arucas 2+ goals

30%

Arucas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)

62%

Arucas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arucas attack 1.06 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

La Cuadra scores more

46%

level

26%

Arucas scores more

28%

La Cuadra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff