La Chaux-de-Fonds vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
La Chaux-de-Fonds57%
Olympique de Genève20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
La Chaux-de-Fonds creates 91% more chances
Season form · 86 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
La Chaux-de-Fonds ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
La Chaux-de-Fonds at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches
Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
La Chaux-de-Fonds attack 1.58 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72
Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + La Chaux-de-Fonds defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
La Chaux-de-Fonds at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "La Chaux-de-Fonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Servette II
Amical Saint-Prex
Chênois
Monthey
Prishtina Bern
Portalban / Gletterens
Lancy
Echallens
Naters
Stade Payerne
Meyrin
Coffrane
Sion IILa Chaux-de-Fonds
Martigny Sports
La Sarraz-EclépensIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
La Chaux-de-Fonds host Olympique de Genève on Sunday, 9 May 2021 at 00:00. The match is part of the 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019/2020 season.
Preview: La Chaux-de-Fonds host Olympique de Genève
May 9, 2021: La Chaux-de-Fonds take on Olympique de Genève in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
La Chaux-de-Fonds host Olympique de Genève at Stade de la Charrière.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.