La Calzada 1–0 UD Logroñés II: Result & Stats

La Calzada

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UD Logroñés II

S. Londoño 30'

4/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

La Calzada33%

×Draw27%

UD Logroñés II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La CalzadaExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.33

La Calzada

1.18

UD Logroñés II

1.33

UD Logroñés II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 77 away

1.48

creates per match

1.55

1.10

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

La Calzada

1.48

UD Logroñés II

1.55

allows per match

La Calzada

1.10

UD Logroñés II

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

UD Logroñés II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw

60%

La Calzada or UD Logroñés II

73%

Draw or UD Logroñés II

67%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+

14%

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals

69%

La Calzada 2+ goals

33%

La Calzada 3+ goals

12%

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

74%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

38%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)

45%

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.18

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

La Calzada scores more

33%

level

27%

UD Logroñés II scores more

40%

UD Logroñés II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Londoño

61'

Michael Ngaah← Iker Pérez

61'

Cayetano Ruiz← Daniel García

73'

Cristian Padilla← Miguel Pison

73'

Jesús García← Pablo Ruiz

82'

Mario Salazar← Sergio Ocón

82'

Rafael Cristóbal← Markel Gil

82'

Álvaro Pascual← Alejandro Martinez

83'

Efrén Ruiz← Mario Manzanos

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⚽

▼

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Manager: Iban Guereñu

73'▲Cristian Padilla←▼Miguel Pison

73'▲Jesús García←▼Pablo Ruiz

83'▲Efrén Ruiz←▼Mario Manzanos

La Calzada substitutes

PadillaGarcíaRuiz

Manager: Eladio Urzay

61'▲Michael Ngaah←▼Iker Pérez

61'▲Cayetano Ruiz←▼Daniel García

82'▲Mario Salazar←▼Sergio Ocón

82'▲Rafael Cristóbal←▼Markel Gil

82'▲Álvaro Pascual←▼Alejandro Martinez

UD Logroñés II substitutes

NgaahRuizSalazarCristóbalPascual