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La Calzada vs SD Logroñés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Calzada20%
×Draw24%
SD Logroñés56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
0.91
SD Logroñés
1.72

SD Logroñés creates 89% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 15 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
SD Logroñés
2.33

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
SD Logroñés
0.33

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
44%
La Calzada or SD Logroñés
76%
Draw or SD Logroñés
80%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
7%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
60%
La Calzada 2+ goals
23%
La Calzada 3+ goals
6%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
82%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
51%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
26%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.91

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

La Calzada scores more
20%
level
24%
SD Logroñés scores more
56%

SD Logroñés at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Calzada vs SD Logroñés

SD Logroñés beat La Calzada 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.