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La Calzada vs San Marcial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Marcial
San Marcial
10/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

La Calzada49%
×Draw25%
San Marcial26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.62
San Marcial
1.11

La Calzada creates 46% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
San Marcial
1.12

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
San Marcial
1.76

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

San Marcial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
74%
La Calzada or San Marcial
75%
Draw or San Marcial
51%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
26%
San Marcial wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
80%
La Calzada 2+ goals
48%
La Calzada 3+ goals
22%
San Marcial 1+ goals
67%
San Marcial 2+ goals
30%
San Marcial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
65%
San Marcial (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

San Marcial attack 1.12 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

La Calzada scores more
49%
level
25%
San Marcial scores more
26%

La Calzada at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Calzada 0 – 1 San Marcial

San Marcial beat La Calzada 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.