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La Calzada vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pradejón
Pradejón
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

La Calzada50%
×Draw24%
Pradejón26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.69
Pradejón
1.14

La Calzada creates 48% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 46 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Pradejón
1.17

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Pradejón
1.91

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Pradejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
74%
La Calzada or Pradejón
76%
Draw or Pradejón
50%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
27%
Pradejón wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
82%
La Calzada 2+ goals
50%
La Calzada 3+ goals
24%
Pradejón 1+ goals
68%
Pradejón 2+ goals
32%
Pradejón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
66%
Pradejón (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pradejón attack 1.17 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

La Calzada scores more
50%
level
24%
Pradejón scores more
26%

La Calzada at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Calzada vs Pradejón

La Calzada beat Pradejón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.