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La Calzada vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

La Calzada49%
×Draw26%
Haro Deportivo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.54
Haro Deportivo
1.02

La Calzada creates 51% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 81 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
75%
La Calzada or Haro Deportivo
74%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
51%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
25%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
79%
La Calzada 2+ goals
45%
La Calzada 3+ goals
20%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
64%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
27%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
66%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

La Calzada scores more
49%
level
26%
Haro Deportivo scores more
25%

La Calzada at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: La Calzada 1–3 Haro Deportivo

Haro Deportivo beat La Calzada 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.