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La Calzada vs Comillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Comillas
Comillas
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 28Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

La Calzada52%
×Draw24%
Comillas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.71
Comillas
1.08

La Calzada creates 58% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 96 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Comillas
1.06

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Comillas
1.93

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Comillas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Comillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
76%
La Calzada or Comillas
76%
Draw or Comillas
48%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
28%
Comillas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
82%
La Calzada 2+ goals
51%
La Calzada 3+ goals
24%
Comillas 1+ goals
66%
Comillas 2+ goals
29%
Comillas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
68%
Comillas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Comillas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.93 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Comillas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Comillas attack 1.06 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

La Calzada scores more
52%
level
24%
Comillas scores more
24%

La Calzada at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Calzada vs Comillas

La Calzada beat Comillas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.