La Calzada 4–0 Cenicero: Result & Stats

La Calzada

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cenicero

3/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 25Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

La Calzada72%

×Draw18%

Cenicero11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La CalzadaExpected goals in this matchCenicero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.72

La Calzada

2.24

Cenicero

0.72

La Calzada creates 211% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

0.33

1.10

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

La Calzada

1.48

Cenicero

0.33

allows per match

La Calzada

1.10

Cenicero

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par

Cenicero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Cenicero →

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw

89%

La Calzada or Cenicero

82%

Draw or Cenicero

28%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+

48%

Cenicero wins by 2+

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals

89%

La Calzada 2+ goals

65%

La Calzada 3+ goals

38%

Cenicero 1+ goals

51%

Cenicero 2+ goals

16%

Cenicero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)

87%

Cenicero (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Cenicero away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Cenicero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Cenicero attack 0.33 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

La Calzada scores more

72%

level

18%

Cenicero scores more

11%

La Calzada at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff