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La Calzada vs Calasancio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Calasancio
Calasancio
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

La Calzada61%
×Draw22%
Calasancio17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.90
Calasancio
0.88

La Calzada creates 116% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 29 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Calasancio
0.66

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Calasancio
2.31

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Calasancio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Calasancio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
83%
La Calzada or Calasancio
78%
Draw or Calasancio
39%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
36%
Calasancio wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
85%
La Calzada 2+ goals
56%
La Calzada 3+ goals
29%
Calasancio 1+ goals
59%
Calasancio 2+ goals
22%
Calasancio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
78%
Calasancio (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Calasancio away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Calasancio defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.90

Calasancio attack 0.66 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

La Calzada scores more
61%
level
22%
Calasancio scores more
17%

La Calzada at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: La Calzada 1–2 Calasancio

Calasancio beat La Calzada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.