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La Calzada vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Berceo
Berceo
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

La Calzada46%
×Draw25%
Berceo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
1.54
Berceo
1.18

La Calzada creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 111 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Berceo
1.59

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
71%
La Calzada or Berceo
75%
Draw or Berceo
54%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
23%
Berceo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
79%
La Calzada 2+ goals
45%
La Calzada 3+ goals
20%
Berceo 1+ goals
69%
Berceo 2+ goals
33%
Berceo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
61%
Berceo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Berceo attack 1.25 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

La Calzada scores more
46%
level
25%
Berceo scores more
29%

La Calzada at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Calzada vs Berceo

Berceo beat La Calzada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.