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Berceo vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Berceo
Berceo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
La Calzada
La Calzada
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Berceo38%
×Draw25%
La Calzada37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berceo
1.44
La Calzada
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

creates per match

Berceo
1.41
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Berceo
1.60
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Berceo or draw
63%
Berceo or La Calzada
75%
Draw or La Calzada
62%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+
18%
La Calzada wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals
76%
Berceo 2+ goals
42%
Berceo 3+ goals
18%
La Calzada 1+ goals
75%
La Calzada 2+ goals
41%
La Calzada 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)
51%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Berceo scores more
38%
level
25%
La Calzada scores more
37%

Berceo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berceo vs La Calzada

Berceo and La Calzada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.