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La Calzada vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

La Calzada
La Calzada
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Autol
Autol
2/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

La Calzada67%
×Draw19%
Autol13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Calzada
2.11
Autol
0.80

La Calzada creates 164% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 34 away

creates per match

La Calzada
1.48
Autol
0.50

allows per match

La Calzada
1.10
Autol
2.74

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par
Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Autol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw
87%
La Calzada or Autol
81%
Draw or Autol
33%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+
43%
Autol wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals
88%
La Calzada 2+ goals
62%
La Calzada 3+ goals
35%
Autol 1+ goals
55%
Autol 2+ goals
19%
Autol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)
84%
Autol (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.11

Autol attack 0.50 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

La Calzada scores more
67%
level
19%
Autol scores more
13%

La Calzada at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Calzada vs Autol

La Calzada beat Autol 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Rollo in Santo Domingo de la Calzada.